$BTC Price Trend Analysis Conclusion:
The current market presents a "short-sell, long-buy" pattern. In the short term, there is a risk of a pullback due to double tops, but the medium to long-term trend is still dominated by bullish patterns on the weekly level.
Core Logic Summary:
Short-term pressure is clear.
1-hour double top + increased long upper shadow: Significant selling pressure in the 103300 area, MACD death cross + shrinking volume, requires a pullback to confirm support.
Daily top divergence indicates a need for correction: If the price cannot quickly break through 103761, the RSI divergence may trigger a technical sell-off.
Medium-term trend remains unbroken.
EMA bullish arrangement supports the market: Especially EMA120 (99482) and weekly MACD form a "safety cushion", a deep drop presents a main force buying opportunity.
Volume-price divergence needs to be corrected: After a period of volume reduction, if it breaks through 103761 on increased volume, it opens up upward space; otherwise, it continues to fluctuate.
Emotional Strategy Simplification:
🔥 Bullish Believer:
"Buy blindly at 102500", hold firmly if EMA120 holds, if it breaks 105000, directly call for a long position!
Psychological Game Point: Panic selling below 102500 is a golden pit, but if it breaks 101000, you must admit defeat and stop loss.
💨 Bearish Sniper:
"Short repeatedly at 103300", double top structure + 1-hour MACD green bars = easy question, make quick money and run!
Warning: Weekly MACD bulls are eyeing closely, breaking 105000 must stop loss and reverse to chase long.
Change Point Warning Signal:
✅ Bullish Victory Sign: 1-hour closing stabilizes above 103500 and RSI breaks 60, chase the rise!
❌ Bearish Sell Signal: 30-minute increased volume breaks below 102000, targeting EMA120.
