#Write2Earn At present, on Friday, May 9, bitcoin (BTC) trades at $103,046, and many observers foresee new record levels before year‑end. Market participants pore over charts with fervent scrutiny, while analysts consult predictive models to discern the asset’s next moves. This analysis examines two specific charting techniques and forecasting frameworks that might yield insight, even though these tools have been called imperfect in the past.
$275K by 2026: Can Rainbow Bands and S2F Predict Bitcoin’s Future?
Plan B, the creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin price model.
Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
The Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) model quantifies scarcity by relating existing supply (stock) to annual production (flow). For bitcoin, “flow” denotes coins newly mined each year. When bitcoin’s supply is halved every four years, flow diminishes, intensifying scarcity. The S2F framework posits that heightened scarcity leads to upward pressure on price.
At present, the price trajectory is shaded red to orange, signifying we just passed a halving event one year ago (red = 0 days to halving, blue = many days past). Historically, these phases after a halving spark vigorous price rallies over the following 12–18 months. The closeness of bitcoin’s market price to the S2F projection now implies the asset is adhering to the model more faithfully than in earlier cycles.
$275K by 2026: Can Rainbow Bands and S2F Predict Bitcoin’s Future?
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) on May 9, 2025.
Projecting historical post‑halving S2F patterns forward, the model forecasts an exponential climb, potentially landing around $275,000 by late 2026. That trajectory reflects the scarcity thesis at the heart of S2F, in which each halving curtails issuance and, all else equal, should elevate the price. This dynamic has played out with exchange‑traded funds and firms like Strategy, formerly Microstrategy.