Current BTC continues a strong one-sided market, strongly breaking through the $104,000 mark during the day, completing a bulk liquidation of high-leverage short positions above. From the characteristics of the market, this round of increase shows typical "short squeeze market" characteristics:
1. **Volume and Price Coordination**: The breakthrough of the key level at $99,000 was accompanied by an increase in trading volume, with short covering pushing the price acceleration.
2. **News Catalyst**: Trump's call on the US stock event became the trigger for breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000, forming a resonance between the news and the technical aspects.
3. **Market Structure**: The perpetual contract funding rate remains at a neutral range of 0.02%, with no extreme overheating signals appearing.
II. Technical Analysis and Turning Point Windows
**Key Point Analysis**:
- **Upper Target**: $105,000 (weekly Fibonacci expansion level + historical trading density area)
- **Retracement Support**: $102,000 (4-hour EMA30 dynamic support + psychological round number)
- **Extreme Defense**: $99,800 (support of the breakthrough trend line this round, effective breakdown will reverse the trend)
**Time Window Projection**:
1. Short-term (24-48 hours): High probability of testing $105,000 after forming a daily top pattern structure.
2. Medium-term (3-5 days): Pay attention to the volatility amplification effect brought by the CME futures delivery window on Thursday and Friday.
III. Trading Strategy Adjustment and Risk Control Plan
**Solutions for Those Missing Out**:
1. **Current Price Position**: 5% base position + 2% floating position (if breaking through $105,000 during the day, can chase the rise, stop loss set at $103,500)
2. **Building Positions on Retracement**: Gradually buy in the range of $102,000-$103,000 (pyramid increasing method, total position not exceeding 15%)
3. **Hedging Strategy**: Establish a 1% reverse position for every $500 increase above $105,000.