Over the past month, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have almost entirely come from recently moved supply, indicating very limited participation from long-term holders.

According to data from CryptoQuant, nearly 75% of the Bitcoin deposited on exchanges each day consists of coins that have just moved within the last 24 hours, reflecting high-frequency repositioning activity rather than strategic distribution. This pattern indicates that short-term selling pressure primarily comes from professional institutions – such as trading desks or market makers – executing liquidity rotations or inventory management, rather than from panic or large-scale profit-taking by long-term investors.

This ratio of 'fresh' supply remains overwhelming. From April 6 to May 6, an average of 75.3% of the Bitcoin deposited on exchanges daily was under 24 hours old. Notably, this figure peaked at 86.2% on May 6. A rare difference appeared on May 3, when coins aged 1–7 days surged to 44.3% – the only time in the study period that older (but still recent) coins surpassed the group moving on the same day.

Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains clear: the majority of Bitcoin deposited on exchanges comes from newly issued or recently circulating coins, rather than from long-term storage wallets.

The output age has contributed to the inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges from April 8 to May 7 | Source: CryptoQuant

Long-term holders are on the sidelines

Data also show that long-term holders have hardly acted during this period. The amount of coins older than a year represented only an average of 0.7% of inflows to exchanges, with a high of just 7.6% on April 10, and mostly remaining below 1%. The silence of the veteran holder group indicates that they remain steadfast in holding rather than taking advantage of the recent price increase to cash out. This also reduces the risk of an abrupt supply surge from large wallets – a factor that could exert negative pressure on prices in the short term.

The output value ranges have contributed to the inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges from April 8 to May 7 | Source: CryptoQuant

Large block trades dominate completely

Analysis by transfer value shows that most inflows to exchanges come from large transactions. Transactions ranging from 100 to 1,000 BTC accounted for an average of 47.8% of total daily inflow value over the past week, peaking at 67.8% on May 3. This is a clear sign of participation from institutions like trading desks, custodians, or ETF market makers, rather than individual investors.

Moreover, the group trading from 1,000–10,000 BTC also recorded an increase, from an average of 7.9% in mid-April to 10.7% at the beginning of May, peaking at 30.5% on April 29. Only one transaction over 10,000 BTC was recorded on April 25, accounting for 2.1% of total inflow value – likely an internal balancing activity or cross-platform transfer rather than typical sell-off behavior.

In contrast, activity from retail investors is almost negligible: transactions depositing less than 1 BTC accounted for an average of 3% throughout the period, further reinforcing the argument that the current market is being driven by institutional capital flows, rather than a sell-off wave from individual users.

High-frequency trading, large scale: a hallmark of institutions

When combining both age and value factors, a clear pattern emerges: the majority of coins deposited on exchanges are newly moved coins being transferred in large batches. This pattern aligns with automated trading activities, arbitrage, market making, or demand from ETF funds. Unlike previous price peak cycles – which often witnessed long-term holders selling off and retail investors flooding in – this phase distinctly bears the mark of institutional involvement.

The continued sidelining of old coins indicates that long-term holders do not view the current rally as an opportunity to exit. Conversely, the current inflows to exchanges reflect the internal operational cycle of professional institutions. Notably, the dominance of large block trades implies that sustainable price fluctuations in the near future can only occur with a significant change in the coin age structure, or when inflows from retail investors increase significantly.

Finally, the massive capital flows re-emerging in early May coincided with significant volatility in the Bitcoin derivatives market – including an increase in open interest and directional trading positions. The expansion of the 1,000–10,000 BTC trading group may be an early signal for a strategic asset reallocation process, especially as ETF and institutional capital flows continue to dominate trading volumes in the spot market.



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