Holder Behavior and the Future of Bitcoin: A Deep Dive
What Is the 1-Year HODL Wave?
The 1-Year HODL Wave is an on-chain indicator that tracks the percentage of Bitcoin that hasn’t moved from its wallet in over a year. Represented as a red line on charts, this metric helps us understand long-term investor sentiment.
When the red line rises, more Bitcoin is being held long-term — a sign that holders expect prices to go higher.
When it falls, long-term holders are starting to sell, signaling caution or profit-taking.
$$$XRP
Interpreting the Chart
The yellow line represents Bitcoin’s price over time.
The red line shows how much Bitcoin is being held for over a year.
The interaction between these two lines reveals valuable insights about market psychology, especially among long-term holders and whales.
Why It Matters
The 1-Year HODL Wave is a key measure of market conviction:
A rising red line means strong belief among experienced holders, reducing available supply and often driving prices up.
A falling red line suggests that these holders are taking profits or anticipating a downturn, which increases available supply and can lead to downward pressure on price.
This makes the HODL Wave a leading indicator of potential market shifts — often more telling than traditional technical tools.
Current Insights
Recently, the 1-Year HODL Wave has begun to decline, dropping from its peak at the end of 2023 and early 2024. This suggests that long-term holders are moving their coins — a potential sign of distribution.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s price remains in an upward trend, supported largely by new liquidity and fresh investors entering the market. While this has kept prices elevated, it also introduces risk: if new liquidity dries up, and long-term holders aren't supporting the market, a sharp correction could follow.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Case
If new money continues flowing in and the HODL Wave stabilizes or reverses upward, Bitcoin could break past historical highs and enter a new phase of price discovery.
Bearish Case
If the HODL Wave continues to drop alongside weakening liquidity, a deeper correction — similar to late 2017 or mid-2021 — could be on the horizon.
Final Thoughts
Keep an eye on the HODL Wave — not just for price action, but to read the intentions of large holders. Combine it with other on-chain tools like:
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Measures whether investors are in profit.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): Indicates whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss.
In crypto, insight beats hope. The market rewards those who read the signs, not thos
e who ignore them.
Current Price: $BTC at $102,899.50 (+3.17%)