The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a historic growth phase as Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark. Inflows from ETF funds, FOMO sentiment, and positive expectations about the future of the blockchain industry are creating strong momentum. However, rapid acceleration always comes with the risk of correction. Below are in-depth analyses to help you understand when the market might reverse.
1. When Could the Uptrend End?
Although the market is still on an upward trend, the following signs may indicate the beginning of a correction phase:
BTC breaks key support levels, such as $98,000 and $92,500, accompanied by a surge in selling volume.
Inflow to ETF funds stagnates – for example, VanEck ETF recorded no new inflows on May 9, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Altcoins weaken even when BTC rises, indicating that money is gradually leaving riskier assets.
Funding rates and leverage are rising sharply, making it easy to lead to mass liquidations when the market fluctuates.
Negative divergence appears on the RSI, especially on the D1 and W1 timeframe.
2. When Can a Sell-off Occur?
A major sell-off could occur if the following conditions happen simultaneously:
Unfavorable economic data, such as CPI or PPI in the US being published higher than expected, may cause the FED to keep interest rates high for longer.
Profit-taking activity from whales appears, for example: a wallet inactive for 12 years just transferred 1,079 BTC to Gemini – a sign it may be preparing to sell.
The USDT dominance rate is rising sharply, indicating investors are moving away from riskier assets to seek refuge.
Unexpected events from the SEC or FED, such as ETF rejections or excessively hawkish stances.
The selling volume is clearly dominant on major exchanges, along with a panic market sentiment.
3. News & Events to Watch in the Next 10 Days
These are key timeframes and information that may cause significant volatility:
May 14: Announcement of the PPI index (US producer prices) – reflecting input costs and the risk of reverse inflation.
May 15: Announcement of the core CPI index – if it exceeds expectations, it could have a strong negative impact on the global financial market.
Before May 23: Movements from the SEC regarding Spot ETH ETFs – any signs of delay or rejection will heavily impact altcoins.
Daily: Monitor Bitcoin ETF flows (BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, Grayscale…) – if outflows persist, the market will clearly weaken.
On-chain: Monitor large wallets and BTC/ETH deposits to exchanges – this is an early signal of potential sell-offs.
4. Conclusion & Strategy
Although the market is in a very strong bull run, the period of 'too good to be true' is often when discipline and alertness are needed more than ever.
Suggested strategy:
Take partial profits at important resistance levels, do not be overly greedy.
Closely monitor macro data and the schedule for US index announcements.
Reduce leverage usage, especially on days with high news risk.
Carefully observe the behavior of institutional money flows and large wallets.
Follow the channel for daily updates on CPI, funding rates, ETF inflow/outflow, and early warnings about major market fluctuations.
