The current market is undergoing the process of "institutional colonization". The fundamental reason for the failure of traditional analytical frameworks is not market maturity, but rather regulatory arbitrage and financial engineering distorting the price discovery mechanism. In this new market ecology, the "top escape" strategy needs to be restructured into a "marginal change monitoring of institutional capital flow + regulatory event-driven" dual-factor model, and traditional on-chain analysis should be downgraded to an auxiliary verification tool.