Cycle规律：Bitcoin price driven by four-year halving cycle, bear market bottom (MVRV<1, Fear Index<20) is a good opportunity for regular investment, bull market top (RSI>80, MVRV>3) requires phased profit-taking.
Risk management: Black swan events (such as Mt.Gox, FTX) occur frequently, 90% of assets stored in cold wallets, only keep what is needed for trading on exchanges, stop-loss 5%-10%.
Technical indicators: EMA50/200 golden cross confirms bull market, RSI<30 oversold buy, BOLL upper limit profit-taking, VOL increase validates trend.
Macroeconomic drivers: US dollar depreciation (DXY<90), central bank easing (such as interest rate cuts in 2024), institutional entry (ETF, MicroStrategy) are long-term positives.
Mental discipline: Do not FOMO in bull markets (chasing high at 69,000 in June 2021, dropping 73%), do not panic in bear markets (liquidating at 16,000 in January 2022 missed the doubling), review trades weekly.
