Latest data key point:
Price dynamics:
Current price: 2,236.68 yuan (24h increase +20.13%), approaching 24h high of 2,245.03, showing strong short-term trend.
Moving Average System: Price is above MA(7)=2,203.96, and MA(7) is diverging upwards from MA(25)=2,047.92, but MA(99)=1,869.33 provides significant long-term support.
Volume analysis:
Trading volume: Current Vol=23,035.73, far below MA(5)=43,010.94 and MA(10)=65,997.84, significant volume-price divergence, sustainability of the rise is questionable.
RSI Indicator:
RSI(6)=93.11, serious overbought (>90), extremely high short-term pullback pressure, caution is needed for a quick reversal.
MACD Indicator:
DIF=89.70 > DEA=79.94, but MACD bar=9.76 shortens compared to the previous value (12.88), upward momentum weakens, need to observe if a top divergence forms.
Key position:
Resistance level: 24h high at 2,245.03 (if broken, must confirm validity with volume).
Support level: MA(7)=2,203.96 (short-term), MA(25)=2,047.92 (mid-term).
Operational strategy:
Position Holder (Long):
Immediate action: Due to serious RSI overbought and volume-price divergence, it is recommended to close at least 50% of positions to lock in profits.
Remaining position: Set trailing stop-loss below MA(7)=2,203.96, if broken, close all positions.
Position holders:
Avoid chasing the rise: Current high + overbought + decreasing volume, chasing longs is extremely risky, patiently wait for a pullback or breakout confirmation.
Shorting opportunity (high risk):
Signal: Price reaches around 2,245 and shows any of the following patterns:
Long upper shadow, engulfing bearish candle;
Continuous shrinkage in trading volume;
MACD bar further shortens or dead cross.
Entry: Light short position (≤5% position), stop-loss set at 2,250 (break previous high + 1% buffer).
Targets: First target MA(7)=2,203, second target MA(25)=2,047.
Risk control:
Leverage limit: If shorting, leverage ≤3 times, avoid extreme fluctuations leading to liquidation.
Stop-loss discipline: Regardless of long or short, single trade losses should not exceed 2% of total capital.
Key verification indicators:
Breakout validity: If price breaks 2,245 and Volume recovers above MA(5)=43,010, short positions should stop-loss and switch to long.
Pullback strength: If price falls below MA(7)=2,203, observe if there is a volume drop to confirm the pullback trend.
RSI Correction: If RSI falls below 70, market sentiment cools, increasing the probability of a pullback.
Summary:
Current price is in a high-risk area, technical indicators are in conflict (overbought but trend is not broken). Suggestion:
Long positions: Focus on taking profits, avoid profit giving back.
Short positions: Limited to light positions and trial and error, strict stop-loss.
Best strategy: Temporarily observe, waiting for one of the following signals:
Breakout with volume above 2,245 → Long after a pullback;
Volume decreases below 2,203 → Short after a rebound.
The market changes rapidly, discipline is key!
