【Can Ethereum replicate the miracle of 2019? Whale withdrawals trigger signals for a rebound!】

Ethereum (ETH) is currently valued far lower than Bitcoin, showing the first undervaluation level since 2019. This situation has previously led to strong performance for ETH in past cycles, but the market environment this time is different. Although the MVRV ratio indicates a potential rebound for ETH, supply pressure, weak demand, and sluggish on-chain activity may become obstacles to its rise.

ETH/BTC ratio suggests ETH could surpass Bitcoin

The MVRV ratio of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin is currently at a historical low, a situation last seen in 2019. At that time, ETH outperformed BTC and showed strong upward momentum. Today, although ETH is undervalued, the macro environment is different; BTC's ETF liquidity and institutional investment dominate the market, limiting ETH's potential for a rapid rebound.

Supply pressure becomes the biggest obstacle

The total supply of Ethereum has surpassed 120 million ETH, reaching an all-time high. An increase in supply may bring selling pressure, especially in the case of weak demand. Unlike previous cycles, the lack of burn activity and demand growth has reduced ETH's scarcity, which may limit its upside potential.

Declining institutional demand and waning retail enthusiasm

The growth of ETH staking has slowed, and there are signs of declining institutional demand. With active addresses and transaction volumes stagnating, and the lack of new on-chain catalysts, ETH struggles to replicate past performance.

Capital outflow may trigger a rebound?

Recently, more than 85,000 ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges, which usually means reduced selling pressure and may stimulate a price rebound. However, despite large withdrawals potentially leading to supply tightening, it does not necessarily result in an immediate price increase, as market uncertainty remains high.

In the coming days, the market will focus on whether ETH can break through its current predicament. If on-chain signals and market conditions improve, ETH is expected to welcome a new round of increases.