Ethereum Counterattack: Can It Recreate the Glory of 2019 and Crush Bitcoin?

Ethereum (ETH) has seen its valuation relative to Bitcoin (BTC) drop to the lowest level since 2019, with the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio showing signals of being severely undervalued. However, this reversal is not so simple this time.

Historical Comparison:

From 2017 to 2019, ETH rebounded strongly several times after being undervalued, surpassing Bitcoin for several months. However, this cycle faces structural resistance—Bitcoin's ETF liquidity and institutional funds dominate, making it difficult for ETH to rebound as quickly as in the past.

Three Major Roadblocks:

Oversupply: Ethereum's supply has exceeded 120.7 million coins, with increased inflationary pressure and a lack of destruction activities to support it, making it hard to exhibit past scarcity.

Stagnation in On-Chain Activity: Since 2021, the growth of active addresses and transaction volume has been weak, with user demand flattening.

Cooling Institutional Interest: The growth rate of staked ETH has slowed, ETF holdings have decreased, and retail investors are no longer as enthusiastic.

The Only Ray of Hope: Large-Scale Capital Outflow

Recently, over 85,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges, triggering market rebound expectations. History shows that large withdrawals are usually accompanied by price increases, but whether this will lead to a genuine supply crunch remains to be seen.

Can ETH Crush BTC Again? The key lies in the market movement over the next few days—will it be poised for takeoff, or just a fleeting moment?