The current Bitcoin market is staging a suffocating short squeeze, with its movement mirroring the frenzied rise following Trump's victory last year. Last night, the price surged past the psychological threshold of $100,000 with overwhelming force, and countless short positions are being ruthlessly liquidated in this "liquidity massacre". This article will deeply analyze the current market structure, reveal the driving forces behind this round of increases, and predict potential extreme market conditions in the future.
History is strikingly similar: Trump Market 2.0?
Market veterans will not forget the crazy scenes after Trump's victory last November - Bitcoin soared 50% in two months, the Dow Jones Index surged 1,200 points in a single day, and bank stocks and cryptocurrencies became the biggest winners. Now, a similar scene is repeating: Bitcoin continues to rise after breaking $100,000, and this morning fans lamented the tragic experience of getting stopped out after opening a short position at $99,000.
Key Data Comparison:
- After Trump's victory in 2024: Bitcoin rose from about $50,000 to a historic high of $108,000, an increase of 50%
- Current Market: Bitcoin quickly rebounded from around $85,000, reaching a high of $104,000 this morning, just a step away from the $100,000 mark
This violent surge is not accidental. As Zhao Changpeng recently predicted: "The crypto-friendly policies of the Trump administration are driving a historic turning point for the industry." The market generally expects that if Bitcoin stabilizes above $110,000, it will trigger the liquidation of more tens of billions of dollars in short positions, leading to a more intense "short squeeze".
Liquidity Massacre: The Darkest Moment for Shorts
This morning's market can be described as a carefully planned "liquidity harvest". Data shows:
- In the past 12 hours: The total amount of short liquidations across the network was approximately $230 million
- Open Contracts: Quickly rebounded from $24 billion to over $27 billion, indicating that leveraged traders are rapidly rebuilding positions
- Long-Short Ratio: Market sentiment is clearly leaning towards bulls, with previous short positions concentrated above $100,000 waiting to be stopped out
"When the news and Twitter are full of 'target 150,000, 200,000', smart money has already started to position itself to sell at the top." This warning is profound, reminding investors to stay sober even in the revelry. History does not repeat itself, but it often looks strikingly similar when betting on greed.
Next two weeks: Epic volatility warning
Multiple analysts have issued warnings:
1. Increased Volatility: Daily fluctuations of ±10,000 points may become the norm, and billion-dollar liquidations are not surprising
2. Key Variables: The India-Pakistan conflict, U.S. policies, and the movement of the U.S. dollar will impact short-term trends
3. Whale Movements: Some large holders have begun strategic rebalancing, with a whale extracting 3,238 BTC (worth approximately $1.38 billion) from exchanges
Operational Advice:
- Those with unstable positions may want to wait and see for clearer signals
- Focus on tomorrow's Federal Reserve data: If negative, the current rise may be difficult to sustain; if positive, coins that have corrected sufficiently will welcome excellent buying opportunities
- Remember: Although the bull market has returned, a frenzied market requires a calm mind!
Conclusion: Stay sober in madness
The current market is at a delicate turning point. On one hand, the policy dividends of the Trump administration and continuous inflow of institutional funds (such as BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF steadily accumulating) support the bull market; on the other hand, excessive leverage and increased volatility also lay hidden dangers for a sharp correction.
As a seasoned trader said: "BTC can still rise, it's far from the peak, but the real game is not guessing up or down, but whether you can stay sober in madness and get off early." In this upcoming epic volatility, only by maintaining rationality can one become the final winner.#BTC重返10万 $BTC
