⚡️ Cardano Risk Model Suggests $ADA Bull Run Hasn’t Even Started Yet: Details

A new Cardano price risk model suggests that the bull market for ADA has not yet begun, despite early-stage bullish signs.

Cardano’s price action has shifted significantly over the past few days, pointing to a possible change in market sentiment. After beginning the week at approximately $0.70, ADA dropped to a local low of around $0.64 on May 6.

However, by May 8, the price had rebounded, surging towards the $0.72 level. In the last 24 hours, the token rose by 4.7%. Cardano’s weekly and 14-day gains stand at 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

While this move reflects a strong short-term recovery, technical and on-chain indicators suggest that broader bullish activity could still be in the early stages.

🔸 Model Suggesting Favorable Entry Zone

An evaluation by Crypto Capital Venture founder Dan Gambardello used a custom risk model to interpret current ADA market conditions. According to this model, Cardano’s Long-Term Risk Score currently stands at 37, categorized as a “Moderate Buy.”

The system classifies risk levels from low to high, with lower values typically aligning with earlier phases of market cycles. For comparison, Cardano’s risk level approached the 50s and 60s during its 2017–2018 and 2020–2021 bull runs, both of which resulted in parabolic price movements.

🔸 Cardano Risk Model

The model also highlights these earlier bull phases with red zones on the Historical Risk Chart, underscoring periods of overextension. Cardano reached over $1 during the 2017 cycle and hit a peak above $3 in 2021.

In both cases, the risk level started in the 30s, consolidated, and then rose sharply, indicating momentum buildup.

Currently trading at around $0.71, ADA remains far below its 2021 all-time high of $3.09. Gambardello views this lower price point, combined with a moderate risk score, as historically favorable for entry. According to him, the Cardano bull market hasn’t begun yet, rather than being near its end.