Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has climbed into the “Greed” zone (score 65) this week, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. As of early May 2025, BTC briefly surged above $100,000 before pulling back to about $99,000. That level marks roughly a 30% gain since early April, showing accelerating momentum. Analysts note that clearing the $100K hurdle could pave the way toward the next targets around $107K–$110K. Traders are watching closely: a close above $100K could signal a fresh breakout, while failure to hold current levels may trigger consolidation. 🚀

The short-term charts show Bitcoin breaking out of its recent range. BTC broke above $92K and rallied up to around $98,800, even briefly exceeding $99K. That area (98–100K) is a key resistance zone mentioned by analysts. Some technicians have spotted a mild “double-top” pattern near $97–98K, which in simple terms means two similar peaks have formed. This pattern warns of a possible pullback to support. The nearest support is around $95K, and a break below that might test ~$92K again. Overall, prices have rallied on strong news-driven volume (e.g. U.S.–UK trade deal rumors), but traders caution that without fresh catalysts the market may consolidate or correct before the next leg up. 🔍

On-chain data and market sentiment remain constructive. Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization (the total value of BTC at last transfer) recently hit an all-time high of about $891 billion, as shown in the chart above. CryptoQuant’s Carmelo Alemán notes this reflects a “surge in invested capital” and growing confidence among both short- and long-term holders. In other words, investors are accumulating and holding rather than selling. This steady accumulation on the blockchain could lay the groundwork for a “potentially significant price breakout” and even a new bull cycle. High realized cap alongside a rising price suggests many holders are in profit and supporting the rally. 📊

Another key signal is net realized profit and loss. Recent Glassnode data show investors have taken over $1 billion in net profits per day (green in the chart below), yet strong buy-side demand has absorbed those sales. In plain terms, traders are selling into strength (locking in gains), but new buyers are stepping in quickly. This healthy dynamic (net inflows exceeding outflows) has helped Bitcoin stay above $95K and approach its all-time high. The chart illustrates these positive profit flows and suggests the market structure is robust. In summary, on-chain metrics point to sustained accumulation and support even as traders take profits.

Historical Context and Price Cycle

  • 2017 Bull Run: Bitcoin’s first major rally took it from a few thousand dollars in 2016 to about $20,000 by late 2017, before a steep correction. 🚀

  • 2021 Bull Cycle: After a bear market, BTC climbed dramatically in 2020–2021 to ~$69,000 (November 2021 peak) amid broader crypto adoption. 🌕

  • 2022 Bear Market: The market cooled, and Bitcoin fell sharply, dipping to roughly $17,000 by late 2022 as global macro uncertainties and regulatory pressures mounted. 📉

  • 2024 Halving and Rally: The April 2024 halving cut BTC’s block reward to 3.125 BTC, reducing new supply. Since then, reduced issuance and renewed demand have powered a fresh bull phase – by January 2025 BTC set a new record near $109,000. This demonstrates how halving-driven scarcity and strong demand typically coincide with major price surges. 🚀

These historical patterns show that Bitcoin often undergoes boom-bust cycles linked to supply shocks (like halvings) and changing sentiment. The latest cycle’s highs are well above the previous peaks, illustrating an evolving market where institutional and retail interest has grown.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, experts remain cautiously optimistic. Many analysts point to Bitcoin’s strong on-chain fundamentals and continued inflows as reasons for a further advance. As the Binance report notes, record-high realized cap and healthy demand suggest the market “may be setting the stage for a major breakout” beyond $100K. Traders will watch macro factors closely: for example, if central banks (like the Fed) keep rates higher for longer, some models warn BTC might retrace (possibly testing around $70K). On the other hand, if inflation fears or geopolitical tensions persist, Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against fiat weakness could drive more buying. In summary, the consensus view is a bullish bias tempered by vigilance: more gains are possible, but volatility remains high. Investors and traders should watch key supports ($95K) and resistances ($100K+), and stay informed on market signals (e.g. rate decisions, ETF flows). Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price will continue to reflect the balance of optimistic buyers versus cautious sellers. 💡

Sources: Technical charts and data referenced from TradingView and Binance analysis, with historical data from CoinDesk, Hindustan Times, and Investopedia. Market sentiment and on-chain metrics referenced to Glassnode and CryptoQuant analyses. (Charts by CryptoQuant and Glassnode as shown; Fear & Greed data from CoinTribune).

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