The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, "good news" for gold on May 8, 2025, Thursday without a doubt

As expected, the central bank has once again increased its gold holdings. The latest updated data shows that at the end of April, our central bank's gold reserves reported 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces month-over-month. This marks the sixth consecutive month of increasing gold holdings.

Although the amount added is not as much as last time, the ability to increase holdings continuously is a positive sign. However, this positive impact is more evident in the medium to long-term trends, which needs to be noted.

More important than the central bank increasing gold holdings is the news from the Ministry of Commerce: China has decided to agree to engage in contact with the U.S.

This is the first clear negotiation between China and the U.S. since the initiation of tariffs on April 9. This means that the trade tensions have eased in the short term, but this is only a relaxation and does not imply that an agreement has been reached.

Next, the market will focus on the details of the negotiations and specific outcomes. Only effective results can truly lift the market out of the "tariff shadow." We will provide a detailed interpretation of the specific content and subsequent market impacts in the live conference later, so stay tuned.

At the same time, there is an even more urgent event than the trade situation, which is last night’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell's speech.

This meeting kept interest rates unchanged, but Powell's remarks triggered a strong market reaction! He stated that tariffs "far exceeded expectations," and the Fed's goal achievement process may be delayed until next year, and rate cuts have also been postponed.

The delay in rate cuts seems unfavorable for gold prices, but the reason behind the delay is the concerns caused by tariffs. If tariffs remain at current levels for an extended period, it may lead to rising inflation and unemployment rates, and slowing economic growth becomes inevitable, which is the essence of the matter.

This morning, the gold market began a strong rise after a brief period of nurturing. Domestic TD prices have returned above 800 yuan, and international gold prices have once again broken through the 3400 mark.

The upward momentum is still present, and considering the uncertainty of future economic conditions, the long-term upward trend of gold prices is difficult to change. In the short term, attention should be paid to the technical support at 3380 below, with initial pressure above at 3420 and further pressure at 3440. Today, trading strategies of buying low and selling high can be adopted within this range.