The Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates triggers a surge, why is the market ignoring hawkish warnings?

Although Powell's remarks were strong, the market had already priced in the expectation of no rate cuts in the short term. Current CME rate futures indicate an 85% probability of a rate cut in July, and the market generally bets on at least two rate cuts within the year. This expectation of easing under a hawkish facade may be the main factor providing invisible support to risk assets.

At the same time, Trump's sudden announcement to lift the Biden administration's restrictions on AI technology has directly ignited enthusiasm for tech stocks, with leading stocks like Nvidia surging. In the wave of renewed risk appetite, Bitcoin's dual attributes as digital gold and a tech asset are once again highlighted, naturally attracting capital.

Another key variable is the restart of China-U.S. trade negotiations. For example, Trump's speech tonight is likely to touch on this topic. Historical experience shows that when the global trade environment improves, the crypto market often benefits from heightened liquidity expectations and a restoration of market sentiment. #BTC突破99K

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