The 'Protocol Magic' of the 'Understanding King' will be revealed tonight! Is Bitcoin's surge to 100,000 a bait or a clearing of shorts?
The 'Smoke Screen' of the Understanding King: The global market's life-and-death game at 10 PM tonight
Suddenly announcing the release of a 'Major National Trade Agreement', coinciding with the historic breakthrough of the Nasdaq Index at 20,000 points, hides a triple capital conspiracy behind it:
The Agreement's Deception
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has signaled 'Agreement could be signed as soon as this week', but Trump just stated yesterday 'The U.S. doesn't need an agreement', this contradictory operation resembles a magician's sleight of hand.
Manipulation of U.S. Stocks
The Nasdaq's breakthrough of 20,000 points was entirely driven by semiconductor stocks (Nvidia up 3.1%), but Google plummeted 7% and Apple fell 1.1%, indicating a serious internal division among tech giants, with funds shifting from traditional tech stocks to AI computing chains.
Interest Rate Game Theory
The Federal Reserve has remained inactive for three consecutive times, but Goldman Sachs predicts a rate cut cycle starting in July. If tonight's agreement alleviates tariff inflation pressure, it could prematurely ignite liquidity expectations.
Bullish Scenario: If the agreement involves canceling the 145% tariff on China, Bitcoin could instantly break 100,000 dollars (CME futures gap is at 102,000).
Bearish Scenario: If the agreement is loud but lacks substance, the Nasdaq may experience a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' sharp decline, dragging Bitcoin down to 93,000.
The Battle for Bitcoin at 100,000: On-chain data reveals the main players' cards.
The core evidence of the current long-short showdown:
Exchange Stockpile Alert: BTC exchange balance has fallen below 2 million coins, with only 5 days of inventory left, but whales moved 12,000 coins to market maker addresses before the crash (suspected preparation for dumping).
Options Explosion Zone: At the 100,000 dollar threshold, contracts worth 18 billion dollars are piled up, a breakthrough would trigger a short squeeze.
Leverage Liquidation Warning: The overall liquidation rate is 83%, long-short ratio is 7:3, market makers love to exploit this position for double explosions.
True Breakthrough Sign: Stabilizing above 102,000 for more than 6 hours + USDT premium breaks 0.8%.
Bait Trap Sign: A quick surge followed by a 3% drop within an hour + exchange stockpile surges.
