The Ethereum Pectra upgrade took place on May 7 at 18:05, marking the first upgrade of the Ethereum mainnet since the Cancun upgrade last March. It includes two coordinated updates: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade, and plans to incorporate 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs). Several important EIPs in this upgrade include EIP-7251 (raising the maximum effective balance for validators), EIP-7691 (enhancing Blob throughput), and EIP-7623 (increasing calldata fees), among others, which this article analyzes and organizes from a data perspective.
Blob Upgrade: Entering the 'Super Execution Layer'
At the ETHAsia 2025 event, Vitalik stated that the Pectra upgrade will increase the Blob capacity from 3 to 6. Currently, 3 Blobs are approximately 375kb, generating 375kb of data every 12 seconds, or about 20kb per second, corresponding to a TPS of about 250; if the Blob capacity increases to 6, TPS is expected to rise to 500. However, the expansion of the Blob capacity largely depends on the Fusaka upgrade expected to be implemented in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Ideally, the Fusaka upgrade could increase Blob capacity to 48; if the DAS (Data Availability Sampling) is fully realized, Blob capacity could reach up to 512, potentially boosting Ethereum L2's TPS to tens of thousands.
From the on-chain data perspective, since the Pectra upgrade, the level of Blob submissions has fluctuated slightly. Shortly after the upgrade was confirmed, Blob submissions rose to 3.6, but the overall level still hasn't reached half of the designed level. However, Vitalik also stated in his speech that although L2 is developing rapidly, enhancing L1's scalability remains crucial for achieving censorship resistance and cross-L2 asset transfers. In the future, as L2 handles massive transaction processing, L1's Blob will inevitably face pressure, and under the current market conditions, the continuous development of L2 is providing potential feedback to L1.
Validator Staking Cap Increased: 'Simplicity is Key'
EIP-7251 increases the maximum effective validator balance from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, allowing for compound rewards and validator consolidation. In the Beaconchain data, the existing validator balance distribution is concentrated in the 32-38 ETH range, with the highest balance reaching 70 ETH, far from the hard cap of 2048 ETH.
In Ethereum's liquid staking, Lido alone operates 286,000 validators, with an average validator allocation still at 32 ETH. After the validator expansion, it is expected to reduce to about 4,500, a decrease of 64 times. This means institutional validators will manage fewer nodes, reducing hardware and maintenance costs. However, some critics of Ethereum warn that this measure may exacerbate centralization and decrease the network's risk resilience.
Additionally, EIP-7002 in the Pectra upgrade allows validators to exit and withdraw on the mainnet, thereby reducing reliance on the active private keys of validator operators, which are vulnerable to attacks as 'hot' keys. In Pectra, EIP-7002 enables withdrawal vouchers to initiate validator exits, bypassing the need for active private keys at the consensus layer.
What is the way out for Ethereum?
Under the major trend of L2 expansion, the income scale of Ethereum validators is facing multifaceted shrinkage. On one hand, the expansion of Blob and the sluggish on-chain activity have reduced part of the transaction fees; on the other hand, price fluctuations have also decreased the staking rewards measured in USD. As a result, the daily income of Ethereum validators has dropped from $10 million to less than $5 million over the past year. The decrease in earnings may also impact the growth of staking in the network, and the implementation of EIP-7251 may accelerate the reduction in the scale of validators.
After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum's current price is $1912.29, with a daily increase of 4.38%. For users, the Pectra upgrade is not only a new starting point for Ethereum's price but also paves the way for the future development of the Ethereum ecosystem. In a recent article, Vitalik hopes that in five years, Ethereum will become as simple as Bitcoin, including simplifying the consensus layer, simplifying the execution layer, backward compatibility strategies for VM transition, and simplification through shared protocol components. We also hope that the Ethereum ecosystem can continue to thrive like Bitcoin.
