The current market focus is on the rhythm of 'expectations vs. reality':
Optimists believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are just a matter of time, combined with the bull market in US tech stocks and easing geopolitical risks, Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 is just the halfway mark of the bull market;
Cautious investors worry that a delay in interest rate cuts could lead to a short-term tightening of liquidity, and that the US stock market is overly reliant on AI narratives; if tech stocks adjust, Bitcoin may be affected.
How should retail investors respond? Focus on two key signals. For ordinary investors, rather than guessing short-term fluctuations, it's better to pay attention to two key indicators:
The correlation between US stocks and Bitcoin: If the Nasdaq index continues to strengthen, Bitcoin is likely to follow; if US stocks pull back but Bitcoin remains resilient, it indicates an increase in independence, making the future more promising.
The movements of on-chain whales: Changes in the addresses of long-term holders and changes in exchange inventories often predict trend reversals in advance.
The logic of the second half of the bull market remains unchanged. Beware of the 'fast bull trap.' Although the Fed's policy disturbances are constant, the underlying logic of Bitcoin—its anti-inflation properties, institutional allocation trends, and supply-demand imbalance after the halving—has not wavered. Short-term fluctuations are actually a process of chip turnover and market sentiment adjustment, which in turn accumulates energy for future breakthroughs.
The $100,000 mark is within reach, but bull markets never happen overnight. Rather than being anxious about daily ups and downs, it's better to remain patient—when the storms are fierce, those who remain calm will prevail.
