Powell's hawkish stance confirms a strong economy. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting maintains the rate between 4.25-4.5%. Powell's speech was firm and cautious, stating that the current inflation rate of 2.6% is still too high, and does not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes, breaking the market's expectation of rate cuts by the end of the year.

Previously, the market aggressively expected a maximum of 4-5 rate cuts (125 basis points) in 2025, but the latest dot plot shows that most officials believe there will only be three cuts (25 basis points each) in 2025, starting as early as July, later than the previous expectation of June.

The reason Powell maintains his stance: soft data raises concerns (such as 'anomalies' in various sectors of the economy), but hard data is strong—consumption has not cooled, the unemployment rate is 4.2%, and new jobs increased by 177,000.

My view: I expect three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025. If the economy cools rapidly, cuts could reach 100-125 basis points, with a clear trend of economic recovery in the second half of the year (especially in the second quarter).