History is always surprisingly similar: After the Federal Reserve ended its interest rate hike cycle in 2019, Bitcoin completed a comeback from $3,500 to $14,000 in just six months. The current market is at a similar turning point, but this time there are new variables such as institutional players, spot ETFs, and on-chain financial derivatives. Investors need to upgrade their cognitive toolkit - they must not only understand the 'subtext' of the Federal Reserve but also be able to decode the 'Morse code' of on-chain data.
On this stage where expectations and reality intertwine, the real risk is not missing a certain market opportunity, but responding to an exponentially changing market with linear thinking. When Wall Street starts using machine learning to predict Federal Reserve movements, and when AI quantitative funds begin scanning on-chain trading data, ordinary investors need to establish their own 'cognitive moat'. After all, in the cryptocurrency market, the biggest positive factor has never been a specific policy, but the ability of participants to continuously evolve.
