Sigh,
The situation now feels like sitting in a café while hearing the undercurrents beneath the table. On the surface, it seems peaceful, but underneath, the cash flow is shifting dramatically.
1. Global economy: Can't rise but is afraid to fall, fearing that if they speak out, everyone will run away.
The World Bank and IMF both say that global growth will be sluggish at 2.7–3% in 2025–2026. Financial analysts are bluntly saying: now is not the time for big profits, but for keeping your mouth shut and your wallet safe.
2. Trade policy: Trump hasn't even taken office yet and the whole world is trembling.
From the beginning of 2025, tariffs are being used as frequently as rice. Everyone knows: the American trade war doesn't need righteousness, just effectiveness. Who can argue? Press the button and there's a tariff barrier. Therefore, the global economy is preparing to enter a phase of contraction. At this point, going all-in is no different from wandering into a gambling den unarmed.
3. The USD is gradually weakening: The Godfather is starting to tire.
In 2025, the USD dropped nearly 9%, and those hedging against risk are fleeing from the greenback. Funds no longer see this as a "safe haven asset," much like people no longer trust the advice of experts who live off investment advertisements.
4. Cash flow: Pulling out of the US, flowing into Europe.
US tech stocks have lost their appeal, and money is racing towards safer places, like European stocks and defensive bonds. Anyone in the US holding tech stocks is probably anxiously waiting for quarterly reports like waiting for test results.
5. Interest rates: Cutting halfway is no different from pulling the plug on a heart monitor and waiting for a miracle.
The US is at 6.84%, not daring to cut deeply for fear the market will misunderstand and think it's seriously ill. In Poland, they lowered interest rates before the election, like setting the table before guests arrive. In short, countries are doing everything they can to prevent their economies from collapsing, but no one dares to say they are recovering.
6. Stocks: The US is pulling in profit reports, while Europe is struggling like a withered noodle.
Meta, Microsoft… are pulling the US index up a bit. But anyone who has been playing for a long time knows: pulling reports is easy, pulling the economy is hard. In Europe, the real estate and construction sectors are even more sickly – not dropping further is already a blessing.
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In short: The market in 2025–2026 resembles a person just waking up after a fever, still in bed but already thinking about running a race.
What does the speculator uncle think?
"Preserving capital is more important than preserving a spouse. Speculation is as cautious as storing gold. Don't believe everything the spotlight shines on; pay attention to the shadows on the board."
