Bitcoin has rallied above $97 000 this week on renewed hopes of U.S.-China trade de-escalation, fresh state-level reserve laws, and sizable corporate “dry powder,” even as looming Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten an oil-driven shock that could cap gains Barron'sCoinDeskCoinDeskStratfor.
Market Drivers
The prospect of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent leading U.S.-China talks in Switzerland has lifted risk appetite, sending Bitcoin 3.6% higher to $97 014 on May 6 Barron's.
New Hampshire’s newly signed law now permits up to 5% of state funds in Bitcoin, marking the first U.S. state to formalize crypto reserves and bolstering institutional legitimacy CoinDesk.
Seasonal headwinds—rooted in the centuries-old “Sell in May and Go Away” pattern—may temper rally momentum through June, with historical data showing further downside before mid-summer rebounds Yahoo Οικονομία.
Whale Moves & Institutional Flows
MicroStrategy added 1 895 BTC at an average price of $95 167 on May 5, pushing its total holdings to 555 450 BTC and underpinning a 2.3% intraday price lift Blockchain NewsCCN.com.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest reiterated its long-term bull case—$250 000 by year-end and $1.5 million by 2030—fueling confidence among asymmetric-return seekers Ark Invest.
Tesla remains on the sidelines of selling, retaining 11 509 BTC (~$1 billion) on its balance sheet after Q1 2025, signaling corporate conviction amid market swings CoinDeskBinance.
BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has amassed $6.96 billion YTD, outpacing gold ETF inflows and attracting broad mainstream capital CoinDesk.
Oil Shock Risk: Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s periodic threats to block the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—could ignite a swift oil spike; Brent surged 2% to $82/barrel on May 1 after fresh sanctions warnings CCN.com
An oil-driven risk-off event historically pulls up to 5–10% of Bitcoin’s market cap back into safer assets, potentially stalling prices near $102 000 in a crisis scenario Stratfor.
With corporate treasuries armed and ETF channels expanding, a baseline trajectory points to $115 000 by November if no major shocks materialize. In a bullish tailwind—driven by dovish trade outcomes and retail inflows—Bitcoin could challenge $155 000. Conversely, an oil-shock crisis could keep BTC subdued around $102 000. Traders should monitor trade-talk developments, whale accumulation, and Middle East tensions as they recalibrate positions for H2 2025.
