✅ Current economic situation:
• Economic strength: The US economy is in a strong position, with an inflation rate slightly exceeding the target set at 2%.
• Decline in GDP: The drop in GDP in the first quarter reflects unusual fluctuations in trade.
✅ Inflation and unemployment:
• High inflation: Despite a noticeable decline in inflation, its short-term expectations have risen, driven by tariffs.
• Unemployment risks: There are increasing risks related to rising unemployment and inflation rates.
✅ Monetary policy:
• Flexible response: The current political stance allows the Federal Reserve to respond as needed, but it is important to wait before any adjustments.
• Tariffs: Tariffs exceed expectations, affecting inflation forecasts.
✅ Market and labor:
• Labor market: The labor market is balanced, and wage growth is experiencing a slowdown.
• Concerns of businesses and families: There is a general feeling of anxiety leading to delays in decision-making.
✅ Future expectations:
• Uncertainty: The uncertainty associated with tariffs makes it difficult to determine the path of monetary policy.
• Price stability: To achieve strong working conditions, there must be stability in prices.
✅️ Summary:
• The Federal Reserve is not in a position to lower interest rates currently and calls for caution in decision-making.