The U.S. Fed keeps the interest rate at the same level — 4.5%.
Conference results:
- Inflation has noticeably slowed down, but still exceeds the target level of 2%.
- Risks of both rising unemployment and renewed inflation acceleration have increased.
- Due to the introduced tariffs, short-term inflation expectations have worsened.
- The size of the tariffs turned out to be significantly higher than forecasts.
- If tariffs remain at the current level, it could trigger an increase in both inflation and unemployment.
- We need to wait before making decisions on the rate.
- The Fed may face contradictions regarding its dual mandate goals (inflation/labor market).
- The rate is at a good level.
- I do not rule out that a rate cut may have to be postponed until 2026 if inflation starts showing signs of growth.
- We are not in a situation where we need to act preemptively.
- The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressure.
- Trump's calls to lower the rate do not affect our work.
- My intuition tells me that the level of uncertainty is extremely high, and risks to the economy have increased.
- I cannot say with certainty what the correct level of the rate will be.
- The economy is in good shape. The Fed's monetary policy is not too restrictive.
- Depending on how events unfold, we may lower the rate or keep it at the same level.
- People are concerned, but there has not yet been a real shock from the tariffs.
- We are now at a new stage, where the administration is beginning trade negotiations; there is potential to significantly change the picture or not.
- Fluctuations in GDP data will not change anything for us.