In just half an hours, the global financial markets will shift their gaze to Washington, D.C., as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. With expectations riding high that the Fed will hold rates steady at 4.50%, traders and investors are on high alert for the post-announcement speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could trigger major volatility across financial markets.
š The Forecast:
Federal Funds Rate Expectation: Hold at 4.50%
CME FedWatch Tool Probability: Over 96% chance of no hike
US CPI YoY (March): 3.2% (above the Fedās 2% target)
US Core PCE (Fedās preferred inflation metric): 2.8% as of last print
Although inflation has cooled significantly from its 2022 peak, it remains above the Fedās comfort zone, causing lingering uncertainty over future rate paths. Powellās tone tonight will be criticalāwill it be hawkish, hinting at future hikes, or dovish, signaling a pivot?
š Market Reactions to Watch:
US Dollar Pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD): Expect aggressive moves depending on Powellās tone.
Gold (XAU/USD): May spike with dovish tones or fall with a hawkish stance.
Major Indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow): Historically show rapid moves post-Fed statements.
Crypto Markets: Often experience high short-term volatility tied to macro policy signals.
ā ļø Traderās Note:
This is not just another routine Fed meeting. The combination of sticky inflation and global market uncertainty makes this one particularly sensitive. Traders are advised to use strict risk management, avoid over-leveraging, and prepare for sharp intraday swings.
š
Stay tunedāall eyes on Powell tonight. Your next trade could depend on every word he says.
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