$BTC Medium-Term Trend Analysis

Current Structure Interpretation:

A breakout from the previous range 92800-95700 with increased volume, combined with a solid line, suggests a genuine breakout. However, as the price approaches the high-density area, there may be selling pressure. Based on different trends, we have formulated various response strategies.

Our core idea yesterday was to maintain a bullish outlook as long as it did not fall below 93000; both short-term and medium-term strategies have received responses, and we have currently taken profits and are watching from the sidelines.

On the Trend:

Long-term, medium-term, and short-term moving averages are all showing bullish alignment, with good volume-price coordination and a healthy trend. The subsequent 4-hour level must not close below 95800; otherwise, a false breakout may continue to oscillate.

In the case of confirmed bullish trends, we should primarily focus on bullish strategies and avoid shorting against the trend. However, entry should ensure safety and risk-reward ratio, and one should not chase after price spikes or dips hastily.

On a Macroeconomic Level:

Today, the People's Bank of China has started to cut interest rates and agreed to negotiate tariff issues with the United States, which overall leans positively for market sentiment. At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting, with market expectations remaining unchanged. The key focus will be on Powell's remarks; based on previous meetings and considering economic conditions, the tone is likely to be dovish, potentially leading to a rebound in market sentiment, with a short-term outlook aiming for 100000.

Operational Thoughts:

If holding long positions at lower levels, they can be maintained, with a stop below 95800 on the 4-hour level;

If there are no positions, wait for a pullback, and enter after a consolidation is formed on the 30-minute level, with a stop similarly below 95800 on the 4-hour level;

If there is another strong breakout near the previous high of 97600, one can cautiously chase higher, placing a stop below 96800, while paying attention to position control and risk management.