Bitcoin Eyes Breakout Ahead of FOMC Decision — Can It Push Past Resistance?

Bitcoin is once again testing the upper boundary of its two-week trading range, gaining 2.8% in the past 24 hours as it challenges key resistance near $97.7K. This follows a familiar pattern—April’s two-week consolidation preceded a sharp breakout. Could May follow suit?

Macro Tailwinds: US-China Trade Talks & FOMC in Focus

Weekend negotiations between the U.S. and China in Switzerland could ease trade tensions that have weighed on risk appetite throughout May. A breakthrough could fuel bullish sentiment, especially in risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the FOMC is expected to hold rates steady, offering further clarity to markets. Doji candlesticks on the daily chart suggest traders are waiting for a catalyst—potentially this week’s Fed decision.

Adoption Momentum: New Hampshire Legalizes Bitcoin Investment

In a landmark move, New Hampshire now allows 5% of state funds to be invested in Bitcoin. This could signal the start of broader institutional adoption at the state level, potentially triggering increased demand and upward price pressure.

Institutional Flows Remain Strong

Bitcoin ETFs are expected to post a fourth straight week of net inflows, with over $5 billion in new investments. Sustained institutional demand could be the driving force that propels BTC beyond the coveted $100K mark.

Seasonality Still Favors Bulls

While U.S. equities tend to lag from May to October, Bitcoin has historically performed well in May, averaging a 7% monthly return, compared to April’s 13%. Seasonality may support upward momentum despite broader market caution.

Technical Outlook: BTC Faces Key Resistance

Bitcoin remains rangebound, rebounding from $93.7K to challenge the May high near $97.7K. The RSI is rising above 50, suggesting bullish momentum, but a bearish MACD crossover warns of potential selling pressure.

• A clean break above $97.7K opens the door to $100K+

• Rejection could see BTC slide toward $93K or even test the psychological $90K support