BTC testing may rise before the FOMC rate decision—could it break out?

BTC tests recent range highs.

Weekend trade negotiations between the US and China are scheduled.

New Hampshire legalizes state-funded Bitcoin purchases.

FOMC will likely hold rates.

Seasonality may help.

Bitcoin technical analysis.

Bitcoin has gained 2.8% in 24 hours, challenging the top limits of its two-week consolidation zone. Remember that Bitcoin's April consolidation lasted two weeks before a rapid rise.

Bitcoin's increase follows news of US-China trade negotiations in Switzerland this weekend. This might deescalate the trade battle, which has harmed risk sentiment this month. Any improvement in ties between the two major economies might boost Bitcoin.

Several more favorable developments occurred. New Hampshire legislation allows the treasurer to invest 5% of public monies in Bitcoin. This might ignite a Bitcoin adoption tsunami in state budgets, rising BTC demand and boosting Bitcoin prices.

Strong institutional demand has continued in recent weeks. A fourth week of net inflows for BTC ETFs is expected, with over $5 billion. Institutional demand may push BTC beyond 100k.

Seasonality may help.

Bitcoin may not follow the “sell in May and walk away” strategy for US equities, which usually underperform between May and October. May is a good month for BTC, however returns average 7% against 13% in April.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin remains rangebound. The price rallied from this week's low of 93.7k to reach May's top of 97.7k. Doji candles indicate hesitation before the Fed rate decision.

Buyers will try to break over 97.7k to reach 100k as the RSI rises above 50.

However, the MACD bearish crossing may boost selling. A rejection at 97.7k might push the price down to 93k and the psychological 90k barrier.

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