'Powell is the biggest enemy of the US economy!' Trump bellowed at a rally in New Hampshire, while supporters waved slogans saying 'Lower Rates to Save America.' Meanwhile, in the Federal Reserve building at that moment, Powell was staring at the fluctuating inflation data on the screen, his fingers tapping out a rapid rhythm on the 5.5% interest rate line – on one side is a political gambler looking for survival through rate cuts, and on the other a central bank guardian steadfastly defending the inflation red line. This struggle, crucial to America’s fate, is dragging the global economy to the brink of a cliff.

I. Trump's 'Three Life-or-Death Moves': Using Rate Cuts as His Final Political Gamble

❶ Manufacturing Return? Just a Blank Check

Trump boasts to everyone: 'As long as interest rates drop to 2%, General Motors will move its factory back to Michigan!' But reality hits too fast – GM's latest financial report shows that domestic factory costs are 47% higher than those in China, and even if rates hit zero, automakers are unwilling to take this 'patriotic' bait. Even more absurd, he privately called Tesla's Musk: 'As long as you move back to California, I will have the Fed give you special low-interest loans.' But Musk declined, saying, 'The supply chain can't move.'

❷ Trade War Running Out of Ammunition? All Depends on Low Rates for Survival

Trump's tariff stick is backfiring: The 145% tariff on Chinese goods costs American retailers an additional $320 billion annually, and these costs ultimately fall on consumers. Even more critically, for every $1 trillion the US government borrows, a 5.5% interest rate costs an additional $35 billion compared to a 2% rate each year - equivalent to burning $100 million daily for the Federal Reserve, leaving his trade war account with only 6 months of 'ammunition.' Last week at Mar-a-Lago, he shouted at his aides: 'If Powell doesn't loosen the money supply, my tariff policy will go bankrupt!'

❸ Countdown to Stock Market Crash? He’s More Anxious than Anyone

Trump's political lifeline – the S&P 500 index – is teetering under high interest rates. The PE ratio is 25 times, higher than the peak of the 2000 internet bubble, while corporate profit growth has plummeted to 2.3%. His chief economic advisor secretly told CNN: 'The first thing the president does every morning is check US stock futures; if it falls below 4000 points, he could tear down the Federal Reserve building.'

❹ The Re-election Bet: Lose and Go to Prison?

Don't forget, Trump faces 34 felony charges, and if he fails to be re-elected, the prison doors might open at any time. He revealed to his donors on the golf course: 'Only economic prosperity can save me, and the key to prosperity is in Powell's hands.'

II. The Federal Reserve's 'Three Trump Cards': Better to be a Villain than a Historical Criminal

❶ Inflation 'Time Bomb' Still Counting Down

Powell's desk is adorned with the latest CPI report: Core PCE at 2.7%, service prices are soaring like wild horses, and wage growth of 6% is driving prices upwards. He banged the table in an internal meeting: 'Isn't the lesson from 2020 enough? Lowering rates just gives the inflation monster more leeway; soon the whole country will pay for Trump's political ambitions!' The Cleveland Fed model indicates that if rates are cut now, inflation could rebound to 8% by 2026, even more ferocious than in 2023.

❷ The Last Defense Line of Dollar Hegemony, No Retreat

The Federal Reserve knows better than anyone: The reason the dollar is the 'world currency' relies on the independence of central bank policies. If a rate cut is seen as bowing to Trump, Saudi Arabia, China, and India will vote with their feet – currently, foreign investors have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries by $1.2 trillion. If a chain reaction of sell-offs is triggered, the dollar index could fall below 90, worse than during the 2008 financial crisis. Powell stated at a congressional hearing: 'We are not the government's printing press; we are the caretakers of the dollar.'

❸ The Financial System is Already Full of Holes

The 'Fear Index' in the US stock options market soars to 35, with a 3.2% default rate on junk bonds, and 30% of small and medium enterprises stating they 'can’t last 6 months.' Even more perilous is the US Treasury market: with a $35 trillion scale and a 5% yield, the annual interest amounts to $1.75 trillion, equivalent to twice the US defense budget. Powell knows that cutting rates now won't save anyone; it just lights the fuse on the debt bomb.

III. Historical Grievances: From 'Colluding' to 'Drawing Swords'

❶ The 'Sweet Poison' of 2020

During the pandemic, Trump and the Federal Reserve performed a 'double act': 0% interest + $4 trillion QE, US stocks surged 300% after a meltdown, but it also buried the inflation bomb. In 2023, CPI rose to 9.1%, forcing the Fed to raise rates brutally 11 times, while Trump shifted the blame: 'Powell messed up the economy!' completely ignoring the ugly truth of how he pressured Powell to inject liquidity back then.

❷ 'Hawkish Revenge' in the Biden Era

During Biden's term, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 5.5%, leading global capital to flow back to the US, but leaving emerging markets in ruins: the Turkish lira plummeted by 80%, and the Argentine peso depreciated by 95%. After Trump took office, he blasted: 'Biden and Powell are colluding to strangle American businesses!' forgetting that his own reckless money printing during his term was the beginning of it all.

❸ The 'Fatal Contradiction' of a Second Term

Trump wants to replicate the miracle of 2020 but forgets that US national debt has soared from $26 trillion to $35 trillion, with interest payments consuming 18% of the fiscal budget. Internal Federal Reserve documents reveal: 'The current US economy is like a drug addict that needs increasingly larger doses of interest rate cuts to maintain its high, but our syringe is already empty.'

IV. Global Economy: Becoming a Hostage in This Struggle

❶ Emerging Markets Being Ground into the Ground

Vietnam's manufacturing PMI has dropped to 45.2, India's exports have halved, and China's exports to the US have fallen by 23% – Trump's tariff war + the Federal Reserve's high rates are creating a 'situation of extremes' in the global supply chain. Even worse are African nations, where debt repayment costs account for 25% of GDP, with a quarter of their daily earnings going to the US, essentially 'working for' the Federal Reserve.

❷ Cryptocurrency: Dancing on the Edge of a Knife

Bitcoin is jumping around the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum's DeFi locked value has plummeted by 40%. Traders are all betting on Powell's words tonight:

  • Hawkish = Cryptocurrency bloodbath, LUNA-style zeroing out reappears;

  • Dovish = A new round of bubbles begins, BTC could soar to $100,000.
    But history proves that every turn by the Federal Reserve is a 'bloody feast.'

V. Tonight at 2 AM: A Single Word from Powell Could Turn the World Upside Down

When 50 million traders globally are fixated on Powell's lips, they know:

  • If he says 'Inflation resilience exceeds expectations': US stock futures plummet by 1000 points, and Trump's Twitter will be flooded with impeachment topics;

  • If he says 'Considering policy lag effects': Bitcoin surges 15% in one hour, and Trump's supporters will set off fireworks in the streets.


But regardless of the outcome, the cost of this struggle has long been determined: Either Trump overdraws America's future 30 years of credit with rate cuts, or the Federal Reserve drags the US economy into a recession abyss with high rates. And we are all mere spectators of this mad gamble, waiting to see who blinks first – because at the dollar hegemony poker table, there are never winners, only the party that loses more tragically.

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