Recently, the price trends of small-cap altcoins have risen a bit compared to the lowest point in early April, but most are still soft and lack strength. This tentative rise is like drawing the letter W; it rises a bit, then falls back down, rises again, and drops again, spinning in place for quite a while.

One reason for this is that Binance has introduced the Alpha zone, specifically promoting small-cap coins that may go on the spot market. There isn't much active money in the market, and this zone has also siphoned off some hot money, so the real big market movements for these small coins haven't started yet.

The recent performance of other altcoins resembles a bear market; the current altcoin trends are even more brutal than in July and August last year. Therefore, subjectively, I still lean towards believing that this is not the direct beginning of a bull market.

As for those mainstream large-cap coins, although there has been a bit of a rebound recently, it's like someone recovering from a serious illness—taking a few steps means needing a rest. Why? Because there are still a lot of trapped positions in these coins; as soon as the price rises a bit, people jump ship and run away. If they really want to take off, they first need to shake off those retail investors weighing them down. This process takes time, but once the washout is complete, the final explosion will definitely be fierce.