财经少华
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Beware! The interest rate meeting on Thursday morning may become a market "explosion point", and the June rate cut may be in vain. Will the bull market rhythm change?
Bitcoin ETF net inflows have reached an all-time high. Is it time to reduce positions on the rise, or is the bull market just getting started?
First, let’s talk about the focus of the global market this week—
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday. This meeting may determine the direction of the entire capital market going forward. This meeting will bring several key pieces of information, and we can use existing data to judge the potential market reaction in advance.
First, the event to pay attention to is the result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. It is almost certain that there will be no rate cut this time, and the market has long priced in this expectation, so the impact of this result on the crypto market can be ignored.
However, the impact of the second event is even more far-reaching and has reversed, which is that the Federal Reserve will provide guidance for the next interest rate meeting. This information is crucial as it determines whether a rate cut cycle will be initiated again in six months, which is significant for our judgment on future market trends.
According to the latest interest rate market data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June has been halved, from 68% to 31.8%, while the probability of not cutting rates has risen to 67%. Therefore, there is a two-thirds chance that Powell's speech on Wednesday night will be bearish, while the chance of being bullish is only one-third. Everyone needs to pay special attention to this.
If Powell hints at a rate cut starting in June this week, then we can appropriately buy back some positions, after all, there is still enough time until June. However, this possibility is only 31%.
But if Powell adopts a hawkish stance and does not cut rates, the market may face a sharp decline. So, it's better to earn a little less than to be stuck at a high point. We can patiently wait a few days; the results will soon become clear.
Bitcoin ETF net inflows have reached an all-time high. Is it time to reduce positions on the rise, or is the bull market just getting started?
First, let’s talk about the focus of the global market this week—
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday. This meeting may determine the direction of the entire capital market going forward. This meeting will bring several key pieces of information, and we can use existing data to judge the potential market reaction in advance.
First, the event to pay attention to is the result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. It is almost certain that there will be no rate cut this time, and the market has long priced in this expectation, so the impact of this result on the crypto market can be ignored.
However, the impact of the second event is even more far-reaching and has reversed, which is that the Federal Reserve will provide guidance for the next interest rate meeting. This information is crucial as it determines whether a rate cut cycle will be initiated again in six months, which is significant for our judgment on future market trends.
According to the latest interest rate market data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June has been halved, from 68% to 31.8%, while the probability of not cutting rates has risen to 67%. Therefore, there is a two-thirds chance that Powell's speech on Wednesday night will be bearish, while the chance of being bullish is only one-third. Everyone needs to pay special attention to this.
If Powell hints at a rate cut starting in June this week, then we can appropriately buy back some positions, after all, there is still enough time until June. However, this possibility is only 31%.
But if Powell adopts a hawkish stance and does not cut rates, the market may face a sharp decline. So, it's better to earn a little less than to be stuck at a high point. We can patiently wait a few days; the results will soon become clear.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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