Breaking news is coming: the showdown between bulls and bears.

From a macro perspective, there are too many influencing factors. Last week's super data week did not produce a significant chain reaction in the cryptocurrency space. Although Bitcoin surged, it still did not meet many people's expectations, especially those who expected a bull market. This week's major event is approaching again; will the bulls and bears finally be pulled out to show themselves?

1. The Federal Reserve FOMC announces the interest rate decision.

At 2:30 AM local time on May 7, this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision.

1. Market expectation: The Federal Reserve may hold steady.

The CME's 'FedWatch' tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is as high as 97.2%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.8%; the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until June is 65.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 34%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9%.

Recent economic indicators released in the US (such as previously released non-farm data), especially the inflation indicators preferred by the Federal Reserve, show that price pressures have eased.

The tax issue has recently eased, but the progress of negotiations is touching; the impact of tax policies on inflation and the economy remains to be observed.

Trump's various explosive remarks and the instability of his policies pose challenges to the Federal Reserve's economic policy; politics and economics are interdependent, and independence cannot be achieved.

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference.

As a representative of the hawks within the Federal Reserve, a simple 'Good afternoon' can trigger international financial turmoil, and the influence of his speech is self-evident. Powell is likely to reiterate the contents of his recent speeches, especially regarding how the Federal Reserve may handle the challenges of rising inflation and unemployment.

Macroeconomic considerations:

The announcement of interest rates and the speech given are the most significant fundamental factors affecting the market recently.

I still hold a belief: whether individuals, institutions, or various indicators, the impact on the market is time-limited. As time passes, the market will ultimately return to a normal operating rhythm.

At the beginning of the year, the expectation for interest rate cuts was already set for June. Currently, with the expectation for cuts being postponed and the frequency reduced, the international financial landscape faces significant volatility in the short term, but it is difficult to affect its fundamental direction. Old Powell's remarks will still not provide clear guidance; the cryptocurrency market will follow suit and decline, but it will not affect the essence of the bull market!