The short-term trend of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors: 1) On the macro level, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, inflation data, and geopolitical risks will dominate market sentiment; if there is a soft landing for the economy, it may stimulate a recovery in risk appetite; 2) Stricter regulatory policies (such as the implementation of the MEME Act) may suppress speculative liquidity; 3) The technical aspect shows a MACD divergence at the 4-hour level, indicating a pullback pressure. In the long term, the 2024 halving cycle combined with the continued inflow of institutional ETF funds (BlackRock's IBIT holding exceeds 300,000 units), and the proportion of long-term holders on-chain reaching a historical high (76%), still provides fundamental support. However, one must be cautious of 'long squeezes' triggered by leveraged liquidations, with key support at $58,000; breaking $67,000 may initiate a new cycle.