Short-term Bitcoin trends are influenced by multiple factors: 1) On the macro level, the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, inflation data, and geopolitical risks will dominate market sentiment. If the economy soft-lands, it may stimulate a rebound in risk appetite; 2) Stricter regulatory policies (such as the implementation of the MEME Act) may suppress speculative liquidity; 3) From a technical perspective, the 4-hour MACD divergence indicates potential downside pressure. In the long term, the 2024 halving cycle combined with ongoing institutional ETF inflows (BlackRock's IBIT holding exceeds 300,000 coins) and the ratio of long-term holders on-chain reaching a historical high (76%) remains fundamentally supportive. However, caution is warranted regarding liquidations triggered by leverage, with key support seen at $58,000; breaking through $67,000 could initiate a new cycle.