#比特币预测

The likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates tomorrow morning is low: based on the latest economic data and market expectations, the Federal Reserve may maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 4.25% to 4.50% without making any rate cuts.

The economic background is complex: the inflation rate is slightly above the 2% target (2.4% in March), and Trump's tariff policy has increased uncertainty, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach. There is a divergence between market and political pressures: while some in the market anticipate a rate cut, the Federal Reserve may resist Trump's calls for a rate cut to maintain its independence.

Current economic conditions: The U.S. economy is performing robustly, with a strong labor market. The inflation rate dropped from 2.8% to 2.4% in March, approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target. However, Trump's tariff policy may push prices higher. In the March meeting, GDP growth expectations were lowered to 1.7%, while core inflation expectations were raised to 2.8%.

The Federal Reserve's stance: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized a “wait-and-see” strategy, stating that unless inflation continues to approach the 2% target or the labor market significantly deteriorates, there will not be an active rate cut. Recent statements indicate that the Federal Reserve is paying attention to the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth, leaning towards maintaining stable interest rates. Market and political dynamics: Some in the market anticipate a rate cut in May, but the latest analysis shows that the likelihood of a rate cut tomorrow is low, potentially delaying until June or July. Trump calls for a rate cut to stimulate the economy, but the Federal Reserve may prioritize maintaining its independence, focusing on price stability and full employment.