Institutional Outlook on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

1. Fitch: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold, as the April non-farm payroll report demonstrates economic resilience rather than recession; the Federal Reserve will wait for a genuine weakness in the labor market.

2. Goldman Sachs: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; the underlying data has not yet shown a serious economic slowdown, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease policy based solely on 'soft data'; a rate cut is expected in July, previously forecasted for June.

3. Barclays: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold and needs to wait for clearer economic trends. A rate cut is expected in July, previously forecasted for June, with another cut expected in September and two more cuts in 2026.

4. Danske: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; it is quite possible to decide on a rate cut at the June meeting, but it is unlikely to commit to a cut prematurely at this stage. This interest rate decision may again provoke strong dissatisfaction from Trump.

5. ANZ: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; despite trade pressures, the U.S. economy remains relatively robust, which may keep the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting rates in the short term, needing more time to assess the impact of tariff adjustments on inflation.

6. Bank of America: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; the threshold for a June rate cut is high. The Federal Reserve is confident that it can continue to guide the market to gradually digest signals about the cancellation of rate cut expectations at necessary times through successive meetings.

7. Wells Fargo: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; the non-farm payroll report strengthens the Federal Reserve's stance to remain on hold for a longer time. It is expected that more than 50 basis points will be cut cumulatively this year starting in June, but the risk of the first rate cut happening later than June is increasing.

8. JPMorgan: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; the current threshold for a June rate cut has become higher, and in times of high uncertainty, the dual mandate faces dual risks; the Federal Reserve committee will likely prefer to remain patient until the outlook is clearer.

9. Deutsche Bank: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; Federal Reserve policymakers emphasize the necessity of staying on the sidelines to see how last month's trade policies will impact economic growth and inflation.

10. Societe Generale: The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold; a 25 basis point cut is anticipated at the June meeting, provided that the labor market is weak, wage growth remains stable, and confirmation that tariff-related price increases are not a persistent phenomenon. (From Jin10 Data) #美国众议院市场结构讨论草案