Recently, the market has been speculating on when the Federal Reserve will stop tapering, much like guessing what's in a blind box. The most reliable prediction now is that they might ease off in June or July. However, it must be clarified that even if tapering stops, we won't see the Federal Reserve start injecting money back into the market until a significant economic issue arises.

Here, we need to clarify two concepts: balance sheet expansion and QE (quantitative easing) are not the same thing. Balance sheet expansion is like normal hydration, while QE is akin to being put on a ventilator. With interest rates still as high as 4.5%, unless the economy collapses, there is no need for such a drastic measure as QE. Historically, the fastest record for interest rate cuts is 14 months, but considering the current situation, the economy is unlikely to face such a severe downturn.