$BTC Medium-term Trend Analysis

Current Structure Interpretation:

With increased volume breaking away from the previous range of 92800-95700, the strong line combined with the volume indicates a true breakout. However, the price has reached a high-density area, which may face selling pressure. Based on different trends, we have developed various response strategies.

Our core thought yesterday was to maintain a bullish outlook as long as it did not drop below 93000. Both short-term and medium-term strategies have responded positively, and we have currently taken profits and are observing with no positions.

On the Trend:

Long-term, medium-term, and short-term moving averages all show a bullish arrangement, with good volume-price coordination, and the trend is favorable. In the subsequent 4-hour timeframe, we cannot close below 95800; otherwise, a false breakout may lead to consolidation.

In confirming a bullish trend, we should primarily adopt a bullish mindset and not easily short against the trend. However, entering the market requires ensuring safety and a favorable risk-reward ratio, and we should avoid chasing highs and cutting losses easily.

On the Macro Perspective:

Today, the People's Bank of China has begun to cut interest rates and agreed to negotiate tariff issues with the U.S., leading to an overall optimistic sentiment in the market. At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting, with market expectations remaining unchanged. The focus will be on Powell's speech, which, based on previous states and combined with economic conditions, is theoretically leaning towards a dovish stance. This may lead to a wave of market sentiment recovery, with hopes of reaching 100000 in the short term.

Operational Thoughts:

If holding long positions at lower levels, they can be sustained, with a defense set below 95800 on the 4-hour level;

If there are no positions, wait for a pullback, establish a consolidation at the 30-minute level before entering, with defense also set below 95800 on the 4-hour level;

If there is a strong breakout near the previous high of 97600 again, small positions can be taken for chasing highs, with defense placed below 96800. Pay attention to position control and risk management.