A scene from the near future
On a fall morning in Washington, as the FOMC members prepared for their monthly meeting, the "EconAI" algorithm was working around the clock. 47 minutes before the meeting started, the algorithm sent its recommendations to members' phones: "Raise the interest rate by 0.5% based on the analysis of 14,352 data points." The surprise? This is not science fiction, but a reality beginning to take shape before our eyes.
A Silent Revolution Inside the Federal Reserve
1.1 Current AI Tools in FOMC**
- **"PolicyForecast Pro"**: Analyzes 9 million economic indicators daily
- **"Inflation Radar"**: Detects inflation trends from credit card data and social media
- Virtual meeting experience simulates automated decisions since 2023
1.2 Why does the Federal Reserve resort to AI?**
- Analysis speed: What took humans 3 weeks is now done in 11 minutes
- Elimination of Bias: Algorithms are not affected by politics or personal relationships
- Complexity Management: Unprecedented ability to connect unrelated variables
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Battle for Sovereignty (Human vs Machine)
2.1 AI Intelligence Advantages
- Prediction accuracy 89% in forecasting inflation versus 72% for humans (Stanford University study 2024)
- **Neutrality**: Not afraid to make unpopular decisions
- **Cost**: Saving $340 million annually from human analysis costs
2.2 Limits that cannot be crossed
- **Understanding Context**: Machines' inability to interpret events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- **Legal Accountability**: Who is responsible when automated decisions fail?
- **Public Trust**: Will citizens accept "robot" decisions controlling their savings?
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Terrifying Scenarios (What if...)
Worst scenario: The day algorithms collapsed
On June 15, 2024, the **"RateMaster AI"** system suffered a cyberattack. In 18 minutes:
- Incorrectly recommended raising interest rates by 2%
- Caused a temporary collapse of treasury bonds
- Cost the markets $420 billion before the error was discovered
Best scenario: Ideal partnership
By 2028:
- Every human member gets a personal "AI Assistant"
- Meetings are held every 3 months instead of monthly
- Market volatility decreases by 60% due to more stable decisions
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The Future of FOMC in the Age of AI
Experts' Forecasts for 2030
| Technology | Adoption Probability | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Fully Automated Director | 35% | Reduction of Human Meetings |
| Virtual Members | 68% | Faster Decisions but Less Flexibility |
| Hybrid Systems | 92% | Fruitful Collaboration between Humans and Machines |
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Are we ready to hand over the fate of the economy to algorithms?
As Jerome Powell left the Federal building after the last meeting, he noticed a new screen in the main hall. It displayed animations of an algorithm tracking markets in real-time. He smiled and said to his aide: "At least you won't complain about long working hours." This may be a joke now, but it could soon become a reality we live.
---In the end
1. Will AI dominance lead to the end of Keynesian economics?
2. How can artificial intelligence be organized in monetary institutions?
3. Are you ready to receive a notification from "Federal Robot" about interest rate changes?