#FOMCMeeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025) to decide on interest rates. Forecasts suggest that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing uncertainty about the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Key updates:

1- High probability of holding: The "CME FedWatch" tool indicates that the likelihood of a rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations of holding.

2- Political pressures without response: Despite President Trump's repeated calls for a rate cut to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, citing inflation risks arising from new tariffs.

3- Market watch: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting cautiously to the decision expectations. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have dropped, while gold has risen by more than 2% supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe havens.

Finally, some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates starting in July, especially if the effects of tariffs begin to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. However, so far, there are no strong indications of sufficient economic weakness to justify an immediate rate cut.