#FOMCMeeting
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is convening its scheduled meeting on May 6–7, 2025. The decision on interest rates will be announced on Wednesday, May 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Interest Rates Likely Unchanged: The Fed is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%–4.50%, a level held since December 2024. Market expectations for a rate cut in June have decreased to approximately 32%, with a higher likelihood (around 80%) projected for July.
Economic Indicators: Recent data presents a mixed economic picture. The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the largest decline since early 2022. However, the labor market remains resilient, with 177,000 jobs added in April and unemployment steady at 4.2%.
Inflation and Tariffs: Inflation, measured by the PCE index, has seen a slight uptick. Additionally, President Trump's recent tariffs on Chinese imports have introduced further economic uncertainty, potentially influencing the Fed's cautious stance.
President Trump has publicly urged the Fed to lower interest rates, arguing that inflation has cooled and that high borrowing costs are unnecessary. Despite this pressure, the Fed is expected to maintain its independence and await clearer economic signals before adjusting rates.
June 17–18, 2025: Next scheduled FOMC meeting.
July 29–30, 2025: Following meeting, with increased expectations for potential rate adjustments.