Trump is planning to issue a stablecoin, and then I suddenly discovered a purpose behind it: to save the US debt crisis. I saw a violent theory, and I will briefly repeat it: After Tether obtained the US dollar and issued an equivalent amount of USDT, 80% of the main US dollar reserves were used to purchase US Treasury bonds... In this process, USDT was created out of thin air, and the US dollar also has actual purchasing power and has become an asset; That is to say, 1 US dollar actually becomes 1 USDT and 1 US dollar equivalent of Treasury bonds; The question is: If USDT does not enter the circulation of the US economy and only operates in the cryptocurrency market, then there is nothing wrong with this mechanism... But if USDT enters the economic circulation of the United States, some Americans can easily use USDT for payment, then it is equivalent to the US dollars taken from the market by Tether itself, and returned to the market in the form of USDT; At the same time, there is another 1 US dollar used to buy Treasury bonds... I don’t know if you have found the problem? This is equivalent to creating 2 US dollars of currency with 1 US dollar! ! ! The same logic is similar to the financial operations of Alipay and Ant Financial, which are similar to the cycle plus multiple leverage... Due to the existence of the US dollar stablecoin, while 1 US dollar creates 2 US dollars of currency, part of the newly added 1 US dollar may become a stablecoin again and create more new liquidity... This will cause a stablecoin issuing company to become a small central bank... or a small Federal Reserve... Thinking further is terrifying. If Trump vigorously promotes the strategy of stablecoins in order to make the domestic economy accept the flow of stablecoins, then with just a few simple steps, a large amount of US dollars circulating in the United States can be turned into stablecoins, and then these dollars can be used to buy treasury bonds to complete the ultimate debt reduction! In that case, stablecoins and US dollars will become the new mainstream currencies. While circulating in the United States, they will not bring inflation, and the US dollars in the hands of the American people will actually become treasury bonds! The United States will also become the first country in the world to adopt stablecoins on a large scale, which is exactly the same as what Trump said, "ensuring that blockchain innovation happens in the United States"... I don’t know what you think of this outrageous theory? Is this an effective "debt reduction" plan?Answer from a big shot: The "outrageous theory" you mentioned actually touches on a very deep macro-financial mechanism: Can stablecoins become "shadow currencies" and help the country achieve debt softening and capital reflux without causing inflation? This logic can be disassembled layer by layer: 1. Does this mechanism really create "double dollars"? Yes, from the perspective of book liquidity, this mechanism is indeed similar to the effect of "double dollars". The process is as follows: 1. Users use 1 US dollar to buy 1 USDT. 2. Tether uses this 1 US dollar to buy US Treasury bonds (mainly short-term Treasury bonds). 3. The 1 USDT held by the user can still be used as "dollars" when circulating in the crypto market. 4. Therefore, the credit of this 1 US dollar is locked in the Treasury bonds on the one hand, and continues to circulate in the digital economy through USDT on the other hand. This is a shadow multiplier effect, just like the early Yu'ebao model of Ant Financial that you mentioned, or the bank's partial reserve system - only this time it is done by a private company. 2. Can this mechanism support "debt reduction"? In theory, it is possible, and it is already being done in some form: Buyers of U.S. debt have shifted from foreign central banks to private markets (including Tether, Circle, etc.), and these stablecoin issuers use the U.S. dollars given to them by global users to "support" the U.S. Treasury. If these USDTs do not enter the U.S. consumer market, it is equivalent to these "dollars" not flowing back to the U.S. mainland, and do not constitute inflationary pressure. But the Treasury bonds have actually been bought, and the U.S. Treasury has therefore been financed-this is the "debt reduction" function of stablecoins. In other words, by encouraging the popularity of stablecoins, the United States has not only locked up external capital, but also increased the purchasing power of bonds, and stablecoins have become "debt vacuum cleaners." 3. What will happen if USDT really enters the U.S. economic circulation? This is the most critical risk point in this "violent theory": 1. If the United States allows USDT to become a means of payment or circulating currency in its own country, it means that part of USDT will continue to circulate based on U.S. debt as collateral. 2. The original "dollar" has also been used by Tether to purchase Treasury bonds.This may lead to monetary base inflation, becoming a form of implicit money printing. 3. This is very similar to the traditional mechanism of central banks releasing liquidity through bond repurchases and QE, but the difference is that the control is in the hands of private companies (such as Tether), not the Federal Reserve itself. 4. Is it possible for Trump to promote stablecoins as an "alternative currency" to achieve macroeconomic goals? This inference is not absurd, and even has a high degree of strategic rationality: If the Trump administration is willing to use stablecoins as a monetary tool, the following results will be produced. 1. Guide the US dollar to become a "decentralized dollar" on the blockchain layer. 2. Divert the traditional US dollar money supply so that the US dollar is still dominated by the United States after digitization. 3. Use stablecoins to "import" debts into the private sector (i.e., currency holders). 4. Stablecoins become a reservoir of debt and inflation, outsourcing inflationary pressure to the global market. This strategy will not only not cause severe inflation, but will be conducive to the continuation of US dollar hegemony in the digital age. Conclusion: Is this a feasible "debt reduction" plan? In theory, it is, and it is already partially in operation. The current scale of stablecoins has exceeded 150 billion US dollars, of which Tether accounts for the majority. More than 80% of Tether's assets are US bonds, which means that it is an important buyer of US Treasury bonds. Stablecoins allow the United States to turn debt into a "global digital currency" for circulation, but at the same time do not increase inflation in the United States. If it is combined with a policy supporter like Trump to promote the legal circulation of stablecoins and integrate them into the payment system, this will be the first step in the outsourcing of the Federal Reserve and the legalization of private currency mechanisms. The outrageous theory you mentioned is not alarmist, but a reality that is slowly emerging. The real question is: Is this system stable enough, transparent enough, and moderately regulated? Otherwise, all this may also become the fuse of a new financial crisis.
If it seems complicated: simply break down the above: 1. You spend 1USD to buy US Treasury bonds, and the money is paid to the US Treasury. 2. The US Treasury spends your 1USD on various things, circulating in traditional finance. 3. You hold a US Treasury bond certificate, issue 1USDT, and circulate it in the crypto market. 4. A merchant is willing to accept USDT, and your 1USDT enters traditional finance again. Lock up 1USDT, release the corresponding US Treasury bonds, sell the US Treasury bonds, and get back 1USD. Does it feel easy to understand? #美国稳定币法案 $BTC
