#FOMCMeeting Today, Tuesday, May 6, 2025, global markets are eagerly awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision. Most analysts agree that the Fed will maintain its key interest rate in the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, adopting a cautious stance in the face of ongoing economic uncertainties.

Why a Rate Hold Is Likely

• Persistent Inflation: Although headline inflation has shown signs of slowing, the New York Fed's core inflation gauge rose to 3% in March, exceeding the Fed's 2% target.

• Political Pressure: Despite President Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts to stimulate the economy, the Fed appears determined to maintain its independence and avoid premature actions that could revive inflation. 

• Impact of tariffs: The new tariff increases imposed by the Trump administration add a layer of uncertainty, with potential effects on inflation and economic growth. 

Market implications

• Stock markets: US stock index futures are down, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Fed's decision.

• Cryptocurrency markets: Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies edged lower as investors awaited guidance on the future direction of monetary policy. 

• Gold market: Gold prices rose, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets and a weaker dollar. 

Future outlook

Although the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged at this meeting, markets are anticipating a possible rate cut later in the year, particularly if economic data shows weakening growth or stabilizing inflation.