Bitcoin BTC Bear Market Cycle and Bull Market Countdown
(1) Super Cycle 3-2-W wave from December 17, 2024, to April 7, 2025, lasted for 111 days.
(2) If May 2, 2025, is the final peak of Super Cycle 3-2-X wave, then Super Cycle 3-2-X wave lasted for 25 days.
(3) Because the duration of Super Cycle 3-2-X wave is much shorter than that of Super Cycle 3-2-W wave (the time cycle ratio between Super Cycle 3-2-X wave and Super Cycle 3-2-W wave is 0.225, less than 0.382), the theoretical end time of the bear market should exceed 111-180 days, and is more inclined to be after 180 days, with an extreme case being a rare 290 days.
Since 180 days later is October 30, 2025, and historically, September and October have both been rising, the bear market will definitely last more than 180 days.
(4) Based on the historical fact that September and October have both been rising, I personally believe the most likely trend is:
<1> After 111 days starting from May 2, 2025, it will end around August 21, 2025, for Super Cycle 3-2-Y wave, target 61539, and start Super Cycle 3-2-XX wave.
<2> Super Cycle 3-2-XX wave will rise and end in October.
<3> After October, Super Cycle 3-2-Z wave will start, with a target of 53591.79, ideally ending in December 2025, and at the latest, ending on February 16, 2026.
<4> Immediately after the end of Super Cycle 3-2-Z wave, the next bull market wave will arrive! This is Super Cycle 3-3 wave, which is the next major bull market, target 190,000 - 200,000.
(1) The internal structure of Super Cycle 3-2 wave during a long bear market conforms to wxyxz adjustment wave.
(2) The decline from 108353 on December 18, 2024, to 74508 on April 7, 2025, is a major W wave (Super Cycle 3-2-W wave).
(3) The rise after 74508 on April 7, 2025, is a major X wave (Super Cycle 3-2-X wave), with an internal structure of wxyxz adjustment wave (the fifth segment of the rise is likely already over).
(4) It is very likely that a major Y wave (Super Cycle 3-2-Y wave) will start on May 2, dropping from the peak of major X wave to around August 21.
(5) Around August 21, it will enter Super Cycle 3-2-XX wave, rising to end in October.
(6) After October, Super Cycle 3-2-Z wave will start, with a target of 53591.79 (near Fibonacci fan 0.618), ideally ending in December 2025, at the latest, ending on February 16, 2026.
(7) After the end of Super Cycle 3-2-Z wave, it will be Super Cycle 3-3 wave, which is the next major bull market, target 190,000 - 200,000.