Bitcoin's recent performance has been tumultuous. After reaching a peak of 97,865 dollars at the end of April, it fell back to 93,000 dollars and is currently hovering around 94,600 dollars, unable to stabilize above the 60-day moving average, like a turtle struggling on the surface of the water, ready to be pushed underwater at any moment.
However, behind the seemingly weak market, there are actually undercurrents flowing. Large institutions have not pulled back; on the contrary, they are frequently active. BlackRock's IBIT ETF continues to attract massive amounts of funds, with nearly 1 billion dollars net inflow last week, doubling its holdings to 5.4 billion dollars; in stark contrast, the old retail favorite GBTC is being sold off by retail investors, while institutions are buying heavily at low prices, staging a grand drama of 'cutting losses and taking over'.
In the next three days, Bitcoin will face the test of three 'nuclear-level' events:
- Federal Reserve meeting (Wednesday): Although the market generally expects this meeting will not raise interest rates, every word from Fed Chairman Powell could trigger a massive market shock. If he makes 'hawkish' remarks, the price of Bitcoin could drop another 3,000 dollars.
- Performance of US tech stocks: The performance of the Nasdaq index is crucial. If the Nasdaq can rebound, it is very likely to drive the crypto market to challenge the 100,000 dollar mark.
- BlackRock's buying trend: Every large purchase by BlackRock seems to reveal their hand to the market, hinting that a major rally may soon unfold.
In addition, there are a few 'landmines' quietly brewing:
- China’s import and export data (Friday): The market is currently worried that export data may plummet sharply, domestic demand remains weak, and the RMB exchange rate is at a delicate key point.
- CPI/PPI data (Saturday): If inflation data continues to remain weak, market expectations for monetary easing will significantly intensify.
- Bernstein forecast: According to Bernstein analysis, by 2029, companies will spend 330 billion dollars to buy Bitcoin, and the current frenzy of institutional buying may just be the prologue.
From a technical perspective, 95,000 dollars has become the lifeline for Bitcoin in the short term. If it cannot break through 97,000 dollars and instead falls below 94,000 dollars, the price could very likely dive down to 89,000 dollars. Currently, Bitcoin's technical pattern is gradually showing an 'M-top' characteristic, with key support levels continuously being broken, and the pressure for market makers to protect the price is increasing. Meanwhile, short positions in the futures market have reached 58%, and major exchanges like Bitfinex and Binance are constantly taking action, making it possible for the market to change direction at any moment.
This is definitely not an ordinary fluctuation market, but a calm before the decisive battle between bulls and bears. Investors now face two choices: either buckle up and wait for the potential surge that may come, or exit early to avoid being caught in the market's violent swings. To be honest, three days from now, the market will either welcome a significant profit or experience a thrilling fluctuation!
