Before its crash, $LUNC had a market cap of $40 billion and just 340 million tokens in circulation, trading around $117.65. But that changed dramatically. The supply exploded, the market cap imploded — and here's why recovery is nearly impossible.

Today, LUNC’s market cap is just $322.4 million, a staggering drop of over 99.2%.

The reason? When UST, LUNC’s algorithmic stablecoin, lost its peg, the protocol began minting massive amounts of LUNA tokens to try and restore it. This hyperinflation drove the token supply into the trillions. As supply surged, price plummeted. The mechanism meant to stabilize UST ended up destroying LUNA instead.

In simple terms: the system flooded the market with tokens to save UST — and in doing so, it wrecked LUNA’s value.

To truly recover, LUNC would need to hit a $40 billion market cap while reducing its supply to under 500 million tokens — something that is, realistically, next to impossible. Even if the supply was burned down to 2.5 trillion and the market cap somehow soared to $1 trillion, the price would only reach about $0.40 — just 40% of its former high.

So when people claim LUNC will make a full comeback, those are empty promises. To reclaim its old value, either the market cap must reach astronomical levels, or the supply must be drastically reduced — and neither is likely anytime soon.

Token burning isn’t a quick fix. It would take the destruction of billions or even trillions of tokens, plus a massive influx of capital, just to start reversing the damage.

Rather than getting caught up in hype, focus on the facts. The gap between belief and reality is far wider than most realize.