#FOMCMeeting The FOMC meeting (May 6 and 7, 2025) is expected to be a pause in monetary policy, with no changes to interest rates, which remain in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

The market is pricing in a high probability (97-99%) that the Fed will maintain this stance, given the strength of the labor market and inflation still above the 2% target, although with an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty due to recent tariff policies.

Jerome Powell is likely to maintain a cautious tone, with no changes in his speech, and the Fed will continue to assess the total impact of economic and trade policies before making new decisions.

It is expected that the first rate cuts could occur as early as June or July, with two total cuts in 2025, although the conditions for this are demanding and will depend on the evolution of economic data.

Furthermore, the Fed slowed the pace of reducing its balance sheet, adjusting Treasury bond sales at a more measured pace, while firmly maintaining its goal of eliminating mortgage-backed securities from the balance sheet.