Due to Trump and moral concerns, the U.S. Senate's cryptocurrency bill is stalled.
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley stated in a letter to the U.S. Office of Government Ethics on May 5 that Trump and his family will personally profit from investments involving UAE government-backed company MGX, cryptocurrency exchange Binance, and World Liberty Financial (WLFI), and efforts in the U.S. Senate to pass cryptocurrency legislation are facing increasing resistance. The senators stated that this transaction opens a potential backdoor for foreign influence and self-enrichment, with Trump's allies reportedly set to gain hundreds of millions of dollars: "This transaction raises a troubling prospect: Trump and the Witkoff family may expand the use of their stablecoins as a means of profiting from foreign corruption."
The Federal Reserve will emphasize a wait-and-see position.
MFS Investment Management's Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager Weissman said in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is almost certain to express a wait-and-see attitude at this week's meeting. The chaos of U.S. tariff policy makes the future macroeconomic outlook particularly difficult to predict. The Federal Reserve will also note that inflation triggered by tariffs, even if theoretically considered temporary, may lead to more persistent actual inflation. Therefore, without clear signals indicating a substantial weakening of the economy, the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to loosen policy. In other words, without actual economic deterioration, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts if necessary.
CZ: This cycle, BTC may reach between $500,000 and $1,000,000; optimistic about the combination of blockchain with AI, scientific research, and other fields.
Binance founder CZ (Zhao Changpeng) recently shared his reflections on prison life, views on President Trump's term, and insights on the future development of the crypto industry during an interview. CZ stated that the prison experience made him cherish health and family more and gave him new insights into the priorities of life and work.
He also mentioned that the Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies brought positive changes to the industry, and he believes that a shift in U.S. policy is crucial for the industry's development. When discussing the crypto industry, CZ pointed out that despite recent market attention on Memecoins, he is more optimistic about the combination of blockchain with AI, scientific research, and other fields, and predicts that decentralized exchanges (DEX) will surpass centralized exchanges (CEX) in the future.
In addition, CZ revealed that he is currently helping entrepreneurs more as a mentor and advisor and no longer plans to lead Binance again or start new crypto projects. Regarding the future price of Bitcoin, CZ predicts that this cycle may range between $500,000 and $1,000,000. He also emphasized that the industry needs to focus more on long-term value rather than short-term speculation.
Bernstein predicts that by 2029, companies will purchase an additional $330 billion in Bitcoin.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein expects an additional $330 billion in Bitcoin purchases by global companies by the end of 2029. Among them, MicroStrategy is expected to contribute about $124 billion, while the remaining $205 billion will come from slower-growing small and medium-sized enterprises. The report points out that the U.S.'s crypto-friendly regulatory environment is driving the trend of companies holding Bitcoin. Currently, publicly traded companies hold about 720,000 BTC, accounting for 2.4% of the total supply. However, Bernstein also warns that MicroStrategy's model is difficult to replicate broadly.
Today's market analysis
BTC:
Current price: $94,209, 24-hour change -0.31%
Trend data: Spot gold continues to rise, short-term increase of over $30, standing at $3,360 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.79%.
According to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT has seen net inflows for 15 consecutive days, totaling about $4.5 billion.
According to Lookonchain data, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has increased its holdings by 41,452 Bitcoin in the past two weeks, worth about $3.92 billion. Its total holdings have now reached 614,639 Bitcoin, with a total value of approximately $58.07 billion.
Viewpoint:
(Bitcoin rebound is suppressed by short-selling resistance)
"There is a notable anomaly in market trends: Bitcoin prices have risen nearly 25%, the open interest has increased from $22 billion to $29 billion, but the funding rate remains close to zero. This reflects that, despite the price increase, some futures traders still choose to build short positions rather than chase the rally. This rare market structure may indicate that the market is about to experience greater volatility: if prices continue to rise, shorts may be forced to cover, accelerating the upward momentum; if prices pull back, it may reinforce the current short position layout. Regardless of how the trend evolves, the current market structure points to an intensification of volatility in the future."
(Short-term Bitcoin holders have not yet significantly taken profits, creating selling pressure; upward momentum is still accumulating)
Short-term Bitcoin holders represent the most aggressive market participants, including professional speculators trading Bitcoin through ETF brokers. In the current bull market cycle, their net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) usually rises to over 40%, after which they begin to take profits, creating selling pressure in the spot market. Currently, this group's NUPL is 8%, and its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) remains negative at -2%. Until the NUPL breaks above 40%, the selling pressure from this group will remain low, which is seen as a bullish signal.
(Service industry PMI below expectations, rising price pressures, BTC fluctuating around $93,000 support)
The U.S. released several service industry data, showing an economic slowdown but persistent inflationary pressures. The S&P Global Services PMI reported at 50.8, below expectations and the previous value, with the expansion momentum of the service industry nearly stagnating. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reported at 51.6, also below expectations, indicating weak domestic demand. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid Index rose to 65.1, reaching a nearly one-year high, with rising inflationary pressures making it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to shift to easing. Amid the contradiction of weakening economic conditions and stubborn inflation, market sentiment is becoming more cautious. Bitcoin has retreated from its $98,700 peak, lacking clear upward momentum. Current data suggests that the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is very low, and the market may continue to fluctuate. Bitcoin's short-term support level is $93,000; if it breaks below, it may retrace to $88,000. The operational advice is to maintain a conservative position, observe subsequent CPI and PPI, and wait for a clear direction to emerge.