The Future of Markets Is Now a Political Chessboard
Markets aren’t driven by fundamentals anymore—they’re driven by politics. And right now, we’re staring down two very real scenarios:
1. The Fed Stands Its Ground (Most Likely):
No rate cuts, no end to Quantitative Tightening. They stick to their original script: maybe some QE by year-end. But here’s the twist—the political machine won’t sit quietly. They’ll crank the pressure, things will start breaking, and when the fallout hits, they’ll point the finger at the Fed: “You should’ve cut earlier. Now it’s too late.”
2. The Fed Blinks:
QT ends this month. Rate cuts begin in June. Markets cheer—mini rally through year-end. But don’t expect the full-blown bull everyone’s hoping for. In 2026, reality bites. Recession hits hard, bear market turns brutal. And again, blame rains down—on the Fed, on “Sleepy Joe,” on anyone but the root causes.
The Fantasy?
That dreamy soft landing where the Fed cuts, the market rallies until 2026, and everyone rides into financial bliss. But let’s be real—that's just smoke. With the level of manipulation and political meddling we’ve seen over the past two years, something's bound to break. Too many bad actors, too much noise.
may be the only chart worth watching when the dust settles.